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Real numbers on rerolling GCs for skillers


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#1 Nobody

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Posted 10 January 2006 - 09:01 PM

Reposted (by request from Knights of Kneee) from usenet:

http://groups.google...b67174f747fc542

marknewsgro...@yahoo.com wrote:
> I see this topic has been brought up pretty often, but even searching
> through those topics I couldn't find a definate answer to a couple of
> questions I have.

> FYI: http://www.battle.ne...rgecharms.shtml

> 1) Does anyone know the exact odds of rerolling a skiller on an ilvl 50
> grand charm?

> [Snip]

This question is one I've been dying to answer myself, but I have been too lazy to do it until I read your question.

For a detailed -- and not-for-the-faint-hearted -- explanation, see this link, namely section 11. Affix selection:

http://forums.diablo...ad.php?t=392254

I found (somewhere, I can't remember now) the dumps of the different files that they refer to on the site above - one of them is called MagicPrefix.txt. They're tab-delimited, and using Excel I massaged the data a bit. It appears that Skiller prefixes (e.g., "Fletcher's" with level 50, frequency 1, group 125) have a lower frequency (1) than other prefixes (e.g., "Jagged", level 3, frequency 4, group 104).

See the bottom of this posting for the entire set of GC prefix numbers.

> 2) Based on the above information and the fact that there are only two
> extra prefixes available on higher ilvl GCs (bloody and serrated), thus
> your odds don't decrease significantly, is it better to hunt for GCs
> from higher ilvls in the hope of that "godly" suffix?

Ok - using the tutorial link above and the prefix data below, you're talking about the following mods (and their frequencies) above level 50 for GCs:

Name, level, frequency, group
Bloody, 52, 4, 103
Lucky, 55, 4, 114
Serrated, 67, 4, 104
Bloody, 75, 4, 103

All of these have a frequency of 4, so it's not a flat distribution.

According to that item-drop tutorial I cited, the odds seem to be based on total frequency. I'm basing this on the example given for the small charm suffix, but it should work the same for a GC prefix.

I'll assume, as you did, that a prefix happens 2/4 times (or 0.5):

If you rerolled a level 50 GC, you'd have total frequency of all the frequencies of suffixes that have level 50 or less. They are too many to re-list here, but it's all but the four I mentioned above. The total I get in Excel on the frequency column for all with level 50 or less is 276. The chances of rolling one of the 21 skillers (each with a frequency of 1) is then 0.5 * 21/276 = 0.052536232. That's a skiller reroll every 19 (roughly) * 3 = 57 pgems on average.

If you rerolled a level 75+ GC, you'd be adding 16 to total frequency, which is 292. Chances of rolling one of the 21 skillers is then 0.5 * 21/292 = 0.035958904. That's a skiller reroll every 27.8 (roughly) * 3 = 83 pgems on average...

The odds may not seem so different, but in terms of pgems it adds up. Unless my math or logic are flawed, that's a difference of 83 - 57 = 26 pgems per skiller.

Let's talk life suffixes now.

There's no guarantee that the higher-level skiller will have a nice (Vita) suffix or any suffix at all. That's entirely another calculation that I'm not going to show here. The data are in the MagicSuffix.txt file if you can find it. I think the people rerolling their Baal GC for a skiller with +46-50 life are looking at a 1 in 1400 chance of getting it, based on my very quick calculations.

On the other hand, some suffixes such as Sustenance (+21-30 life) are still possible on level 45 GCs. You still need to get both the skiller and the suffix, so your chances are also tough. I see it as around 1 in 800 chances to get a skiller and level 45 Sustenance.

Personally, I'll take the better odds (giving a savings of average 26 pgems per skiller) for the level 50 GC reroll and forfeit the possible additional 20 life. I have many characters of different classes and the skillers are always useful, even if I can't trade them for duped high runes.

> I found two grand charms on my way down to Meph in NM last night, which
> I assume are ivl 50. Nervously (since I don't have much gear and only
> had 40 pgems stored up after a couple of months playing), I decided to
> reroll them. I burned through about 30 pgems without getting a skiller.
> I stopped when I got something that I thought was decent on each charm.
> The first was a +124 to attack rating, which according to some article
> I read was good, and according to AS is possible. The second - I was
> tired so I can't be sure - , but I think was +28 to Dex. It seems too
> high to me and according to AS is not possible. Anyone know?

Yeah - you must have been tired - perhaps it was +28 resists?

> Are either of these really useful? Or should I just go on rerolling?
> I'm almost out of pgems though ;-)

I reroll my GCs as I find the pgems... that way they never take up too much space and you don't have such a let-down when you burn 30 pgems and don't get crap :D

Remember, according to my calculations, you get a skiller on average every 57 pgems (19 rolls) if it's ilvl 50.

Here are the data from the file I mentioned.

=========== data excerpted from MagicPrefix.txt for 1.11
Name, level, frequency, group
Stout, 1, 4, 101
Stout, 7, 4, 101
Stout, 12, 4, 101
Burly, 17, 4, 101
Burly, 22, 4, 101
Burly, 27, 4, 101
Stalwart, 32, 4, 101
Stalwart, 37, 4, 101
Stalwart, 42, 4, 101
Red, 4, 4, 103
Red, 16, 4, 103
Sanguinary, 28, 4, 103
Sanguinary, 40, 4, 103
Bloody, 52, 4, 103
Jagged, 3, 4, 104
Jagged, 10, 4, 104
Jagged, 17, 4, 104
Forked, 25, 4, 104
Forked, 32, 4, 104
Serrated, 39, 4, 104
Serrated, 47, 4, 104
Rugged, 1, 4, 109
Rugged, 7, 4, 109
Rugged, 21, 4, 109
Bronze, 1, 4, 110
Bronze, 7, 4, 110
Bronze, 13, 4, 110
Iron, 19, 4, 110
Iron, 25, 4, 110
Iron, 31, 4, 110
Steel, 37, 4, 110
Steel, 43, 4, 110
Steel, 49, 4, 110
Fine, 15, 4, 111
Fine, 22, 4, 111
Sharp, 29, 4, 111
Lucky, 21, 4, 114
Lucky, 38, 4, 114
Lucky, 55, 4, 114
Lizard's, 1, 4, 115
Lizard's, 7, 4, 115
Lizard's, 13, 4, 115
Snake's, 19, 4, 115
Snake's, 25, 4, 115
Snake's, 31, 4, 115
Serpent's, 37, 4, 115
Serpent's, 43, 4, 115
Serpent's, 49, 4, 115
Shimmering, 8, 1, 116
Shimmering, 14, 1, 116
Shimmering, 35, 1, 116
Azure, 1, 2, 117
Lapis, 10, 2, 117
Cobalt, 20, 2, 117
Sapphire, 30, 2, 117
Crimson, 1, 2, 118
Russet, 10, 2, 118
Garnet, 20, 2, 118
Ruby, 30, 2, 118
Tangerine, 1, 2, 119
Ocher, 10, 2, 119
Coral, 20, 2, 119
Amber, 30, 2, 119
Beryl, 1, 2, 120
Viridian, 10, 2, 120
Jade, 20, 2, 120
Emerald, 30, 2, 120
Fletcher's, 50, 1, 125
Acrobat's, 50, 1, 125
Harpoonist's, 50, 1, 125
Burning, 50, 1, 125
Sparking, 50, 1, 125
Chilling, 50, 1, 125
Hexing, 50, 1, 125
Fungal, 50, 1, 125
Graverobber's, 50, 1, 125
Lion Branded, 50, 1, 125
Captain's, 50, 1, 125
Preserver's, 50, 1, 125
Expert's, 50, 1, 125
Fanatic, 50, 1, 125
Sounding, 50, 1, 125
Trainer's, 50, 1, 125
Spiritual, 50, 1, 125
Nature's, 50, 1, 125
Entrapping, 50, 1, 125
Mentalist's, 50, 1, 125
Shogukusha's, 50, 1, 125
Red, 15, 4, 103
Sanguinary, 45, 4, 103
Bloody, 75, 4, 103
Jagged, 7, 4, 104
Forked, 37, 4, 104
Serrated, 67, 4, 104
Snowflake, 9, 2, 137
Shivering, 15, 1, 137
Boreal, 30, 1, 137
Hibernal, 45, 1, 137
Ember, 5, 2, 138
Smoldering, 15, 1, 138
Smoking, 28, 1, 138
Flaming, 43, 1, 138
Static, 7, 2, 139
Glowing, 14, 1, 139
Arcing, 29, 1, 139
Shocking, 44, 1, 139
Septic, 1, 2, 140
Envenomed, 12, 1, 140
Toxic, 27, 1, 140
Pestilent, 42, 1, 140

Edited by Nobody, 10 January 2006 - 09:08 PM.


#2 ario

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Posted 01 February 2006 - 09:08 PM

whoa! very nice. Thanks for the info

#3 KOK_Sparxxx

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Posted 19 February 2006 - 04:49 PM

Very good info, and can help a lot of people out, pinned

#4 billibr

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Posted 26 March 2006 - 03:31 AM

When i run ubers for the body parts i clear those areas the GC's found there re-roll very very nicely most times

#5 BreCalmor

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Posted 26 March 2006 - 10:37 AM

 billibr, on Mar 26 2006, 02:31 AM, said:

When i run ubers for the body parts i clear those areas the GC's found there re-roll very very nicely most times

Interesting, I may start doing that too...  what ilvl are those GCs?

#6 rafan

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Posted 07 November 2006 - 08:01 PM

thanx for this info Nobody, always find it interesting how things like this work. I belive it is almost worth the extra effort to work a high life skiller, as the difference to a 20-30 lifer to a 40 lifer being traded is huge - people adore the high life stats. Two lower life ones may barely make up a high life one

how ever this does mean that if ur low level, go for the 50 lvl gcs  and also  NM COWS   i have heard how good they are for skill gcs, this confirms it (the cows are lvl 62 i belive)
so overal, cheers for guide and now its time for me to cow

#7 mrnt0810

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Posted 02 September 2010 - 09:28 AM

What if I wanted to roll a skillgc with lifer?